🤯Tariffs, Turmoil & a Bitcoin Power Play — Welcome to 2025.

📆 Week of March 31, 2025

👋 Hey Nebulites,

If you blinked this week, you probably missed a global market meltdown, a fresh round of trade war drama, and Bitcoin quietly flexing in the background like it’s prepping for a title shot.

While the suits on Wall Street were sweating tariffs, crypto Twitter was busy trying to figure out if we’re in a bull market or just being gaslit by green candles.

Let’s break down what really went down this week — minus the CNBC noise and plus a few laughs.

📬 This week’s lineup:

✍️ Trump’s tariff bomb: Did it break the system or just set it up for a reset?
🧠 BTC: Unbothered, unphased, and possibly... uncorrelated?
🏛️ U.S. Bitcoin Reserve: We’re in the accumulation era — and now the government is too.
📉 BEAR TERRITORY: How $11T vanished & why tech got cooked

🇺🇸 TARIFFAGEDDON: TRUMP’S “LIBERATION DAY” BREAKS MARKETS

Trump dropped a tariff nuke this week and renamed it “Liberation Day” — ironic, since markets responded by panicking like they were held hostage.

Here’s what went down:

• 10% blanket import tariffs

• 34% on China

• 20–24% on EU and Japan

• First time U.S. tariff levels have crossed 25% since 1900

📉 Markets bled $6.4 trillion
🇨🇳 China struck back with 34% tariffs + rare earth restrictions
🇪🇺 Europe’s looking at tech taxes and investment freezes
📉 Dow: -2,200 pts in 2 days
📉 Nasdaq: Entered official bear market

And the fun doesn’t stop there 👇

🧠 MACRO NARRATIVE: WILL THE FED BLINK FIRST?

While everyone’s panicking over tariffs, smart money is watching the Fed.

Why? Because ironically, tariffs might force the Fed to cut rates sooner:

1. 📉 Treasury yields are down → borrowing gets cheaper

2. 📉 Dollar is weakening → global liquidity improves

3. 📈 Rate cut odds for May jumped from 14% → 26%

If growth slows and inflation spikes, the Fed may pull a “soft rug” — and sneak in rate relief disguised as policy prudence.

And guess what benefits from that?
Yup. Your orange coin friend. 🍊

🪙 BITCOIN STAYS COOL IN THE CHAOS

Bitcoin didn’t just hold the line — it chilled there like it was watching TradFi burn from a beach chair.

• Held the $82-84K range

• Open interest & whale inflows spiked

• Correlation with Nasdaq broke down

• BTC closed the day +1% while everything else crashed

If this isn’t decoupling… it’s at least a test run.

BTC to Tech Ratio = all-time high
BTC to FOMO Ratio = climbing

🏛️ AMERICA IS NOW DCA-ING BITCOIN TOO

In a plot twist no one had on their 2025 bingo card, Trump authorized the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Yes, the government is literally DCA’ing into Bitcoin.

This isn’t just about buying the dip — it’s:

• A hedge against CBDCs and de-dollarization

• A digital flex in the U.S.-China arms race

• A way to make BTC sovereign-backed (and maybe, untouchable)

If this keeps up, don’t be surprised to see “Treasury Wallets” on chain.
Welcome to geopolitical crypto season.

📉 BEAR TERRITORY: Welcome to the Tariff Recession Trade

Things just got historical — and not in a good way.

This week, the Nasdaq 100 officially entered bear market territory with a -6% crash — its worst daily drop since March 2020. In total, U.S. equities have shed over $11 trillion in value since Feb 19.

Let that sink in:
➡️ Nasdaq 100 – Bear market ✅
➡️ Russell 2000 – Bear market ✅
➡️ Nikkei 225 – Bear market ✅
➡️ Magnificent 7 – Bear market ✅

And the S&P 500? Down 10% in just 2 days — something we’ve only seen 6 other times in modern history (most recently in 2020, 2008, and 1997).

The trigger? Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” lit the fuse:
→ Effective U.S. tariff rate is now above 25% for the first time since the Smoot-Hawley Act of the 1930s
→ Tariffs now represent 1.6% of U.S. GDP, the largest shock since 1968
→ If they persist, JPMorgan says we could see a -3% to -4% GDP contraction

Here’s the market play-by-play since “Liberation Day” (April 2):

• Trump drops the tariff hammer — way more than expected

• China fires back with 34% tariffs

• Powell? Shrugs and says he’s “not in a hurry” to cut rates

• Retail investors bought $4.7B in stocks (highest net inflow in a decade)

• Hedge funds? Biggest selling since 2010

Translation: retail got trapped. Hard.

Now, the Mag7 is down 29% from ATHs — hitting levels not seen since the August Yen Carry Trade Collapse. Most investors are bleeding more than the S&P’s -13.5% YTD decline... all because of tech overexposure.

Memes of the week:

✍️ Final Thoughts

This week felt like Act I of a new macro regime:
✔️ Inflation protectionism
✔️ Trade weaponization
✔️ Bitcoin morphing from “risky tech” to “strategic asset”

The next cycle won't be just about retail FOMO... it’ll be about nation-state accumulation.
And if you're reading this, you're still early.

Stay hedged. Stay sharp. Stack responsibly.

— Daniel @ Nebular 🚀

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.