💥Rate Cuts, Tariffs (again) & Bitcoin Signals: What Really Moved Markets this Week

📆 Week of April 7, 2025

🚀 Hey Nebulites,

Another week, another macro mess.

We had it all: a $10T market wipeout, tariff-induced whiplash, a Fed trying to tiptoe through inflation, and BTC hanging on like a stubborn meme stock with conviction.

But behind the noise? There’s signal.

And that’s what we’re here for — to help you understand how macro, crypto, and digital assets all actually connect, so you can make sharper moves.

Let’s dive into this week’s lineup👇

📦 This Week’s Lineup:

1. 📉Global Markets Just Got Wrecked — Tariffs trigger a $10T selloff

2. 💸Dollar Drops, Bitcoin Pops — How liquidity flows are moving everything

3. 🏦QE vs QT: Why Crypto Still Cares — The Fed’s balance sheet still runs this game

4. 🧊Inflation Cools, but Crypto Yawns — CPI drops… and markets drop anyway

5. 📤Bitcoin ETF Outflows Spike — $149M pulled out in one day. Should we worry?

6. 💡 Crypto Tip of the Week

🎁 REFERRAL PROGRAM (Check the details at the end👇)

📉 CHAPTER 1 — Global Markets Just Got Wrecked (And It Started with Tariffs)

What do you get when you combine a Trump comeback with a 10% import tax on the entire planet? A global market meltdown — fast and furious.

Last week, former President Donald Trump dropped a tariff bomb on imports from 57 countries, including China, Japan, the EU, and even Vietnam. The reaction? Chaos:

• The S&P 500 lost $2 trillion in the first 15 minutes

• Global markets lost $10 trillion in just 3 days

• Asia got smoked: Nikkei down 8%, Hang Seng down 9%, South Korea’s Kospi hit the brakes with a 4.8% crash

• The S&P 500 is now down 15% from its February peak — flirting with bear market territory

Even crypto wasn't safe:

• Bitcoin dropped 5.8%

• Solana fell 12%, hitting a 13-month low

• Dogecoin slipped 10% (but hey, no one bought that for fundamentals anyway, right?)

🔄 Investors scrambled to safety — dumping risk assets and flooding into stablecoins.

On the geopolitical side, it’s not just tariffs — it’s a full-blown trade showdown:

• China hiked tariffs to 125% in retaliation

• The EU paused action to negotiate, but called the U.S. move a “serious blow” to the global economy

• Over 70 countries are now trying to de-escalate with the U.S. — spoiler: it’s not going well

Meanwhile, Treasury yields spiked to their highest levels since 2001, and Fitch Ratings warned that this policy shift could tip the world into recession mode.

In short:
Tariffs are back. So is market fear. And we’re only in April.

💸 CHAPTER 2 — Dollar Drops, Bitcoin Pops

This week, we saw a clear divergence in the markets: the U.S. dollar weakened to level not seen since July 2023, and Bitcoin rallied hard. And as strange as it might sound — those two events are more connected than you’d think.

🏦 Dollar Weakness = Global Uncertainty

The U.S. dollar fell sharply against safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, hitting a 6-month low against the euro. Why?

• Trump’s tariff war escalated — and markets didn’t like it

• China hit back with 104% tariffs, triggering recession fears

• Treasuries sold off, and analysts started talking “de-dollarization”

Even the yuan dropped to a record low — forcing Beijing to step in.

The result? Investors are losing confidence in the dollar’s near-term strength. And when the dollar cracks, capital starts looking for alternative stores of value.

📉 BTC vs. Dollar: What’s the Relationship?

Historically, Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar have an inverse relationship — when the dollar drops, BTC tends to rise.

• In early 2024, the correlation was -0.65

• But in 2025, analysts say that could change

• If the U.S. continues flooding markets with liquidity, both BTC and the dollar could rise — though for different reasons

So while they usually move in opposite directions, the rules might be shifting. We're watching that closely.

🏦 CHAPTER 3 — QE, QT & Why Central Banks Still Move Crypto

Let’s get one thing straight: crypto might be decentralized, but it’s still very dependent on what central banks do with money.

In 2025, the two big acronyms driving markets are back:

• QE (Quantitative Easing) = Liquidity injection

• QT (Quantitative Tightening) = Liquidity drain

And yes, they both still hit your crypto bags directly.

💧 QE = Bullish Fuel

When the Fed (or other central banks) buys up bonds and lowers interest rates, it pushes more liquidity into the system — and investors go risk-on.

• In the last big QE cycle (2020–2021), Bitcoin went from $7K to over $60K

• Arthur Hayes now says if the Fed fully pivots back to QE, BTC could go to $250K by the end of the year

• Polymarket odds? 100% chance QT ends by May

🛌 QT = Bearish Weight

QT does the opposite — it pulls liquidity out of the system by letting bonds mature and shrinking the Fed's balance sheet.

• QT was a major driver of the 2022 bear market

• Bitcoin fell over 75% during that tightening phase

• Even now, the Fed is still allowing $35B/month of mortgage-backed securities to roll off

The good news? In March, the Fed slowed QT — and BTC immediately jumped 6%

The liquidity tide might be turning.

🌍 Global Macro Chessboard

• Europe’s next move: Under MiCA, the ECB might start accumulating Bitcoin as a macro hedge (yes, really). Some analysts even see it becoming a legit reserve asset.

• BOJ is still doing yield-curve control, which means global liquidity flows could remain uneven and volatile.

Different central banks, different playbooks — but the money moves always matter.

🧊 CHAPTER 4 — Inflation Cools, But Crypto Stays Calm

We finally got some good inflation news — and the market barely blinked.

March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in cooler than expected:

• Year-over-year CPI: +2.4% (vs. 2.6% forecast)

• Month-over-month CPI: -0.1% — the first decline since May 2020

• Core CPI (ex food/energy): Up just 0.1% MoM — slowest pace in 4 years

Translation? Inflation is cooling down, and that’s typically good for risk assets… but not this time.

₿ Crypto’s Reaction? Meh.

• BTC and ETH briefly popped after the CPI release

• Then they... went right back to where they started

Why? Because inflation’s old news now.
All eyes are on tariffs, global negotiations, and whether or not the Fed will pivot to full QE.

📤 CHAPTER 5 — $149M in Bitcoin ETF Outflows: Just a Dip… or Something Deeper?

If you’ve been watching the charts and something felt…off — here’s why.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just posted six straight days of outflows, including a massive $149.66M pulled out on April 10.

And that’s not a glitch — it’s a potential signal.

📉 What Do Bitcoin ETF Outflows Actually Mean?

Spot Bitcoin ETFs (unlike futures ETFs) hold actual BTC. So when money flows in, providers buy Bitcoin. When money flows out, they might sell — which can pressure prices.

And six consecutive days of outflows isn’t just noise. It could mean:

• 📉 Weakening investor demand

• 🧰 Profit-taking after recent rallies

• 🔄 Rotation into other asset classes

• 🧠 Short-term fear in uncertain macro conditions

🕵️ What’s Behind the Exodus?

A few theories are floating:

• Macro jitters: Inflation, rate cuts, and tariff headlines are creating uncertainty

• Profit booking: BTC’s rally to $83K may have tempted investors to cash in

• Preemptive rebalancing: Some expect a correction or are hedging risk

• ETF-specific quirks: Inflows/outflows can be lumpy — but this trend spans multiple funds

If it were just one ETF, you could dismiss it. But six days across multiple funds? That’s a sentiment shift.

📈 Why This Matters

Spot ETFs were supposed to be the big unlock for institutional capital.

And to be fair — they brought in billions.

But now we’re seeing that same institutional capital pulling back — at least temporarily. This doesn’t mean long-term conviction is gone, but it does suggest caution is creeping in.

💡 Crypto Tip of the Week

Use ETF inflows/outflows as a macro sentiment tracker.

Spot Bitcoin ETF data is one of the cleanest ways to see how institutional capital is feeling. Tools like Farside Investors or CoinGlass let you track daily flows.

📊 When inflows are high → demand is up → bullish
📉 When outflows rise → sentiment is cooling → caution ahead

Make it part of your weekly toolkit.

🤡Memes of the week:

That’s a wrap for this week, Nebulites.

If you found this helpful, share it with a friend, a trader, or someone who still thinks CPI is the only macro metric that matters.

🚀 Stay sharp, stay sovereign.
— Daniel
Founder, Nebular

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.