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🇺🇸🇬🇧 From US-UK Trade deal to Fed Uncertainty: The Week in Macro & Crypto

📆 Week of May 5, 2025

🛰️Hey Nebulites,

We’re back with a fresh edition — and this week, TradFi is leaning hard into crypto.

The Fed held rates steady (surprise: they’re confused too), the U.S. and UK just signed a deal that sent the market flying, and Coinbase made the biggest crypto M&A move… ever.

Oh — and a big shoutout to you all: we just passed 4,000 subscribers.
Thanks for riding this journey with us 🙏

This week we also partnered with Kraken (yes, the Kraken) — you’ll spot their message right after Chapter 1. Proud to be building alongside serious players.

So… what’s fueling this rally? Let’s unpack it.

📦 This Week’s Lineup:

1. 🇺🇸🇬🇧The U.S.–UK trade deal rallies markets

2. 🏦 The Fed held steady — and markets are nervous

3. ⚖️Treasury backs crypto bills — but not without drama

4. 💰 Coinbase just bought Deribit — and crowned itself

5. 💡 Crypto Tip of the Week: ETH/BTC, Your Altseason Early Warning System

🎁 CHECK OUT OUR REFERRAL PROGRAM (Details at the end👇)

🇺🇸🇬🇧 Chapter 1 — U.S.–UK Trade Deal Sparks Market Rally

Some good news for once — and markets loved it.

On May 9, the U.S. and U.K. struck a new trade deal, and it’s being called the biggest breakthrough since Trump’s tariff chaos started. The whole market jumped, risk appetite returned, and investors finally exhaled a little.

🚛 What’s in the deal?

• Lower tariffs:
  The U.S. will drop car import tariffs from 27.5% to 10% on up to 100K UK cars, and remove the 25% steel tariff.
  The UK cuts its own tariffs (from 5.1% → 1.8%) and opens up to U.S. beef, ethanol, and more.

• Sector wins:

  • Jaguar Land Rover and UK steelmakers save hundreds of millions

  • Boeing scores a $10B aircraft deal

  • Pharma and food standards stay untouched — no chlorine chicken deal 😅

📈 How did markets react?

• Nasdaq: +1.1%

• S&P 500: +0.6%

• Dow Jones: +1.1%

• Crypto Total Market Cap: +7.95%

Tech, industrials, and other “global growth” sectors led the charge. Investors saw the deal as a sign that the trade war might cool down, at least a little.

🧭 Why this matters

This isn’t just about cars and steel. It’s about sentiment — and right now, markets are hypersensitive to any sign of macro relief.

More importantly, it raises hopes that U.S.–China talks might follow, or at least that the tariff madness could calm.

🧠 Nebular Take:

No one expects this deal to save the UK economy or fix the global outlook — but for markets? It’s a vibe shift. And when sentiment improves, capital flows back into risk. Crypto included.

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🏦 Chapter 2 — The Fed Hits Pause, But the Clock Is Ticking

On May 7, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50%. That’s the same level we’ve had since December.

Why? Because the Fed’s walking a tightrope:

🌀 What’s going on?

• Inflation is cooling, but still not low enough

• Unemployment is low, but job market risks are rising

• Trump’s new tariffs? They’re making the outlook even messier

The Fed said it’s seeing more risk — of both higher inflation and higher unemployment. That's what economists call stagflation, and no one wants that.

Stagflation = the worst of both worlds: prices go up, the economy slows down, and no one’s happy — not even the Fed.

🤔 Will they cut rates soon?

Not yet. The Fed said it’s watching the data — inflation, jobs, global events — before making any moves. Markets were hoping for rate cuts this summer, but that now looks unlikely unless the economy slows further.

Oh, and they’re still quietly shrinking the balance sheet, meaning there’s a little less liquidity sloshing around.

🧠 Nebular Take:

The Fed is basically saying: “We don’t know what happens next, so we’re not touching anything.”
That means crypto and stocks are in wait-and-see mode… until the next inflation print drops.

🏛️ Chapter 3 — US Treasury Backs Crypto Bills — But the Drama’s Real

Big week in DC for crypto regulation.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. should be the “#1 place for digital assets” — and publicly supported two major crypto bills now moving through Congress:

• A market structure bill to define what counts as a security vs commodity

• The GENIUS bill to regulate stablecoins (like USDC or USDT)

Bessent said this kind of legislation is key to staying ahead of China in the crypto race — and that’s exactly the tone Trump’s team has been pushing lately too.

🔥 But not everyone’s on board...

The political tension around crypto is getting spicy.

• Trump recently announced a private dinner for top $TRUMP memecoin holders, and it set off a firestorm

• Rep. Maxine Waters (Democrat) led a walkout during a crypto hearing, calling it “Trump’s crypto corruption”

• A group of Senate Democrats now say they won’t support the stablecoin bill unless it adds tougher anti-money laundering protections

So while Republicans might have the votes to push things forward, this week showed us that crypto is now officially political — and very partisan.

🧠Nebular Take:

We’re closer than ever to getting clear crypto rules in the U.S. — but memecoins and election-year politics could still mess it up. If this goes through, it’ll be the most pro-crypto legislation we’ve seen… maybe ever.

📉 Chapter 4: Coinbase Buys Deribit — And Just Took the Derivatives Crown

Coinbase just made a massive move — and it wasn’t on-chain.

On May 8, it announced the $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange. That’s the biggest deal in crypto M&A history — and it officially makes Coinbase the new heavyweight champ in crypto derivatives.

💼 Why this matters

Most of crypto’s volume happens off the spot market. Derivatives — like futures and options — now drive the lion’s share of institutional trading. With this deal:

• Coinbase becomes #1 in open interest

• Deribit’s $30 trillion+ options market is now under the Coinbase umbrella

• It gives Coinbase a stronger presence outside the U.S., where Deribit dominates

This isn’t just about scale. It’s about global reach, regulatory positioning, and staying competitive with Binance, which still leads overall volume.

💡 Futures vs Options 101

• Futures = a bet on where the price is going, locked in for a later date.

• Options = the right (but not the obligation) to buy/sell at a set price later (calls and puts).

Both are essential tools for pro traders, hedge funds, and increasingly — institutions managing crypto exposure.

🔍 Why now?

• Kraken just bought NinjaTrader for $1.5B

• Robinhood is rumored to be expanding derivatives offerings

• Institutions are warming up to hedging + leverage in the digital asset space

🧠 Nebular Take:

Coinbase isn’t playing catch-up anymore — it’s playing offense. And this deal signals that the next leg of crypto growth won’t just be spot trading or NFTs — it’ll be built on derivatives. Expect more consolidation to follow.

💡 Crypto Tip of the Week: ETH/BTC, Your Altseason Early Warning System

ETH/BTC isn’t just a chart — it’s one of the most important signals in crypto.
When Ethereum starts gaining strength against Bitcoin, it often marks the start of a broader altcoin rally. Think of it as the canary in the crypto coal mine.

📉 Right now, the ETH/BTC ratio is sitting at a level that historically signals “oversold” conditions — similar to where it bottomed in early 2020.
In the past, this zone has triggered massive rotations into ETH and alts, often just before altseason kicked off.

So far, we haven’t seen a breakout… but if ETH starts outperforming BTC, that could be your first clue that risk appetite is coming back.

🧠 What to watch for:

• A bounce off the purple support zone on the chart

• ETH/BTC closing above key resistance = potential shift in market structure

• Social buzz and inflows picking up in top alts (SOL, AVAX, etc.)

🔁 TL;DR: Keep one eye on price, and one eye on ETH/BTC. If this ratio flips, altseason could be closer than you think.

🤡Memes of the week:

✅ Wrap-Up

Markets are shifting. Regulation is heating up. And the institutions are moving fast.

If you're reading Nebular, you're early — and informed.
Stay sovereign. Stay sharp.
And don’t forget to forward this to one smart friend who’d enjoy it too.

Until next week,
– Daniel
Founder, Nebular

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.