🚀 Coinbase Joins the S&P, BTC Still Has Room, and Superpowers Pause

📆 Week of May 12, 2025

🛰️Hey Nebulites,

We’re back for another wild week — and this one had it all:

📈 Coinbase makes crypto history
📉 Inflation cools
🧠 Macro metrics scream “we’re not done yet”
🇨🇳 🇺🇸The U.S. and China hit pause
And we’re still watching the altcoin signals like hawks.

Let’s dive into what mattered this week — and what it means for the next moves in crypto, finance, and the global macro machine.

📬 This Week’s Lineup

1. Coinbase Joins the S&P 500 – A major milestone for crypto’s legitimacy on Wall Street

2. Inflation Drops to 2.3% – Financial conditions are easing, and BTC could be next to benefit

3. M2 & CBBI Say the Top Isn’t In – Two of our favorite macro indicators point to more upside

4. US-China Trade Truce – The tariffs cool (for now), but the real deal is still a maybe

🎁 CHECK OUT OUR REFERRAL PROGRAM (Details at the end👇)

🏛️ Chapter 1: Coinbase Enters the S&P 500 — A Big Win for Crypto on Wall Street

It’s official: Coinbase is joining the S&P 500 — making it the first pure-play crypto company ever to be included in America’s most iconic stock index.

🗓️ Effective May 19, COIN will replace Discover Financial Services (being acquired by Capital One), and with that, crypto gets a permanent seat at the Wall Street table.

🟩 What’s the big deal?

The S&P 500 tracks the top 500 publicly traded U.S. companies, and billions in retirement funds, ETFs, and institutional portfolios track it. That means…

That could be a major tailwind for COIN shares in the weeks ahead.

📈 Market reaction:

• Coinbase stock popped 27% after the news

• It’s already up big this year, thanks to strong Q1 earnings and its $2.9B Deribit acquisition (which we covered last week)

In other words, for American readers of Nebular, it means that your parents, friends, neighbors, will soon own a piece of COIN.

🧠 Nebular Take:

• Validation: Coinbase beat the earnings criteria to qualify for inclusion — no easy feat in this market

• Mainstream penetration: From Nasdaq listing to now being in every S&P 500 index fund = big step forward for institutional legitimacy

• Momentum: Coming off bullish news cycles (BTC ATH, pro-crypto White House, ETFs), this continues to solidify crypto’s place in traditional finance

📉 Chapter 2: Inflation Hits 2.3% — and That’s a Win for Crypto

Inflation just cooled off again.
According to the April CPI report, U.S. annual inflation came in at 2.3% — its lowest level since February 2021, and slightly below forecasts (2.4%).

👉 Monthly CPI rose 0.2%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) also came in soft at 2.8% YoY — all in line with or under expectations.

No big market moves right away, but here’s why it matters...

💸 Why This Actually Matters for Crypto

As inflation cools, pressure builds on the Fed to cut rates — and Trump isn’t being subtle about it.
He recently said Jerome Powell should just “let it all happen, it will be a beautiful thing.”

Translation?

• Rate cuts → easier credit → more liquidity → more money flows into risk assets like stocks and crypto

• This is classic “financial easing” — and it’s historically bullish for Bitcoin

Here’s the key insight:
📊 When financial conditions ease (lower rates, weaker dollar, cheaper commodities)... Bitcoin tends to follow 2–3 months later.

So while CPI falling to 2.3% might not feel massive today, it’s laying the groundwork for bullish momentum this summer.

🧠 Nebular Take:

Inflation cooling = signal to risk-on traders.
And if the Fed listens to Trump and cuts soon, we could be setting up for another leg up in crypto.

🧠 Chapter 3: Is the Cycle Over? These 2 Metrics Say Not Even Close

There’s a lot of noise right now. Some say BTC topped. Others are calling for $120K next.

So… is this the end of the bull cycle?

📉 Short answer: Nope. At least not according to two of the most reliable macro indicators we track at Nebular:

• 🟢 Global M2 (money supply) is still climbing

• 🟢 CBBI (Crypto Bitcoin Bull Index) says we’re not overheated… yet

Let’s break it down.

💵 1. Global M2 = Liquidity Rising = Fuel for Bitcoin

Global M2 (aka the money supply) includes cash, checking, savings accounts, and other near-liquid assets.
When it goes up? More liquidity = more money chasing assets = good for crypto.

🧠 Historically, BTC pumps about 90 days after a rise in M2 — and that’s exactly what we’re seeing again in 2025.

M2 is climbing steadily right now. That’s your macro tailwind.

🔥 2. CBBI Score Still Low = Not Overheated

If you’re not familiar with CBBI (cbbi.info) — it’s a blend of 9 key metrics that measure where we are in the Bitcoin cycle (like dormancy flow, Pi cycle, RHODL ratio, etc).

• In past cycles, BTC topped when CBBI was above 90–95

• Right now? It’s still far from those levels, meaning the cycle still has room to run

Think of it like this:

So far? No red flags.

🧠 Nebular Take:

Until CBBI flashes “overheated,” we ride the M2 wave.
Yes, we could get short-term corrections (that’s crypto), but the big picture still points up.

🌍 Chapter 4: US–China Tariff Truce Buys Time… But the Clock’s Ticking

On May 12, the U.S. and China hit pause on the latest round of their trade war — a move that’s giving markets a short-term breather… but not exactly cause for celebration.

🔁 The New Deal (for Now):

• China slashed tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% → 10%

• The U.S. dropped its levies on Chinese imports from 145% → 30%

👉 But here’s the catch: This “peace” is temporary. These lower tariffs only last 90 days — after that, we’re back to full-blown trade war levels unless a deal gets done.

🧠 So… Is This Actually Good?

Well… kinda.

Beijing is showing signs it wants a deal:

• Loosened export controls on 28 U.S. firms

• Allowed rare earth shipments again

• Lifted Boeing’s delivery ban

But the U.S. is still playing hardball — issuing fresh warnings against Chinese AI chips (like those from Huawei).

In other words: It’s a truce, not a honeymoon.

📉 Meanwhile… China’s Economy Looks Wobbly

Despite “winning” some trade concessions, China’s domestic data isn’t great:

• CPI is in deflation territory

• Loan growth collapsed in April

• Business activity is slowing, and credit demand is weak

This puts pressure on Beijing to strike a deal — stimulus isn’t working as planned, and investors know it.

🇺🇸 The U.S. Isn’t Bulletproof Either

In America, recession fears are creeping in.

According to The Kobeissi Letter:

Translation?
The U.S. can’t afford a major slowdown either, especially with budget deficits already stretched.

📊 Market Reaction: Mixed

• Hang Seng 📉 -0.17%

• CSI 300 📉 -0.58%

• Nasdaq 📈 +0.72%

Investors are cautiously optimistic… but nobody’s popping champagne yet.

🧠 Nebular Take:

This truce feels more like a timeout than a turning point.
But both China and the U.S. have economic reasons to make something work — and that’s good news for global markets (and crypto too).

If a lasting deal gets signed, it could unlock a new wave of risk-on momentum.

💡 Crypto Tip of the Week: Don’t Fade the Macro

A lot of people — even some of my smartest friends — still think crypto moves on vibes, influencers, and meme coins.
But here’s the truth: macro drives it all.

📉 Inflation?
🧠 Rate policy?
🌐 Trade tensions between the U.S. and China?
💸 Global liquidity from central banks?

That’s what moves Bitcoin.
Not some whale tweet or Discord alpha group.

And this week proved it again:

• ✅ Inflation cooled — CPI came in at 2.3%, lowest since 2021

• 📈 M2 money supply is rising — meaning liquidity is quietly creeping back

• 💸 Financial conditions are easing — and history tells us Bitcoin loves that

Historically, BTC tends to rally 1–3 months after these kinds of macro shifts begin.
We’re in that window right now.

🤡Memes of the week:

✅ Wrap-Up

This week was another strong signal that crypto is no longer on the sidelines.

With Coinbase joining the S&P 500, global trade shifting, and financial conditions loosening up, we’re entering a phase where crypto isn’t just surviving — it’s becoming central.

And if the M2/CBBI combo holds true?
We’re far from done.

Until next week,
– Daniel
Founder, Nebular

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.