🎰Bitcoin in Vegas, Altcoins on the Move and BlackRock’s Stablecoin Play

📆 Week of May 26, 2025

🛰️Hey Nebulites,

It’s been a massive week in crypto, and not just price-wise.

From the Fed subtly flashing recession warnings... to ETH quietly gaining ground... to Las Vegas turning into the global HQ of Bitcoin maximalism — the macro and crypto storylines are deeply intertwined right now.

Let’s get into the four biggest signals of the week — and what they mean for your portfolio.

📬 This Week’s Lineup

1. ⚠️The Fed’s hidden recession message — and what it means for Bitcoin

2. 🐂Altcoin season whispers: ETH/BTC ratio wakes up

3. 🪨BlackRock’s stablecoin power grab via Circle’s IPO

4. 🎰Bitcoin 2025 Conference recap: political, cultural, and Layer 2 fireworks

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⚠️ Chapter 1: Fed Staff Warn Of Recession - And Crypto Should be Paying Attention

The Fed just dropped a subtle bombshell in the minutes from its May meeting: staff now see a U.S. recession as “almost as likely” as their base case. Translation? Recession risk is rising — and fast.

What’s spooking the central bank?

👉 One word: tariffs.
Trump’s aggressive trade policy, including fresh tariffs, is cranking up inflation and slowing down growth — a lethal mix known as stagflation.

Here’s what stood out from the May minutes:

• GDP growth expectations have been cut for 2025–2026.

• Inflation may not return to the Fed’s 2% target until 2027.

• The unemployment rate is expected to rise and remain elevated.

• Long-term Treasury yields have jumped, while the dollar slid.

• Policymakers flagged a potential loss of faith in U.S. assets as safe havens — a seismic shift if it takes hold.

All of this paints a picture of an economy walking a tightrope — and the Fed is playing it cautiously. They left interest rates unchanged (4.25%–4.50%) but acknowledged that policy trade-offs are getting harder to manage.

🤝 Trump Meets Powell

In a high-stakes sit-down at the White House on Thursday, President Trump met with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, pressuring him (again) to cut interest rates.

While the Fed claims no rate path was discussed, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt revealed Trump told Powell he believes “he’s making a mistake” by keeping rates high — especially in the face of rising global competition.

The Fed, for its part, emphasized its commitment to “careful, objective, and non-political analysis.” But in reality, the meeting underscores the increasing politicization of U.S. monetary policy — just as inflation refuses to go away.

Potential Impact on Crypto Markets

• Stagflation = Bitcoin narrative boost. 

• Dollar weakness = risk-on flows.

• Interest rate cuts incoming? Markets are still pricing in two cuts by year-end.

• Geopolitical uncertainty = decentralized appeal. 

🧠 Nebular Take

📊 Keep an eye on:

• Treasury yields

• Fed funds rate expectations

• DXY (Dollar Index)

• Crypto correlation to gold

🐂Chapter 2: Is Altcoin Season Back? ETH/BTC Ratio Says ‘Maybe’

For months, Bitcoin has hogged the spotlight, with its dominance climbing above 65% and capital sticking mostly to the king.

But something is changing.

As of mid-May, BTC dominance is slipping, Ethereum is surging, and altcoins are starting to catch bids. Is this déjà vu all over again — or is 2025 rewriting the rules of the crypto cycle?

Let’s decode the signals:

🔍 Bitcoin Dominance Slides as Altcoins Stir

• BTC’s dominance fell from 65% to 63.89%, just as it reclaimed $100K — an odd combo.

• Historically, when BTC rises and dominance falls, it often signals the start of capital rotation into altcoins.

• Ethereum has led the charge — +64% in the past month, while SOL, DOGE, ADA, and XRP are all posting double-digit gains.

So... is altcoin season here?

⚖️ ETH/BTC Ratio: From Despair to Hope

• After touching 2020 lows, the ETH/BTC ratio is now bouncing back.

• This ratio has long been a canary in the coal mine for altcoin rallies. A breakout usually precedes major capital inflows into the broader market.

• If this rebound holds, expect the next wave of interest to flow into large caps first (think SOL, AVAX, LINK) — before trickling down into mids and memes.

🧭 But This Cycle Feels... Different

Altcoins aren't automatically riding Bitcoin’s coattails like they did in 2017 or 2021.

Why?

• Retail appetite remains fragile post-2022 carnage.

• Many altcoins need fresh capital, not just rotation.

• Selectivity is key: utility, narrative, and liquidity matter more than ever.

In this environment, altcoin breakouts may look slow and selective, not wild and broad-based like in past seasons.

💸 Macro Tailwinds Are Lining Up

• The DXY hit a 3-year low, historically a green light for risk assets.

• BTC has ripped through $110K.

• Gold recently hit

  $3,456 — a new all-time high.

Bitcoin is clearly acting as an inflation hedge again — but can altcoins follow?

They’ll need help: either from clearer narratives, ecosystem activity, or unexpected catalysts (think ETF rumors, major airdrops, or regulatory wins).

🧠 Nebular Take

May 2025 may not feel like a “classic” altcoin season — but it could be the start of something bigger.

Keep your eyes on:

• ETH/BTC ratio (especially if it breaks resistance)

• BTC dominance below 60%

• Trading volume shifts across top 50 alts

The best plays might not come from following the herd — but from getting ahead of where capital wants to go.

🪨Chapter 3: BlackRock Eyes Circle’s IPO - A Power Play in Stablecoins?

One of the biggest stories this week? BlackRock wants a 10% piece of Circle’s IPO.

Yes, that BlackRock.

The world’s largest asset manager is reportedly eyeing a ~$62M stake in Circle, the issuer of USDC — the second-largest stablecoin in the world.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is also getting in on the action, lining up $150M worth of shares in the offering.

Circle opened its IPO book on May 27, aiming to raise $624M by floating 24M shares. Demand has already surpassed expectations, with orders exceeding the shares on offer multiple times.

🧾 Circle’s Numbers — Strong, but Not Untouchable

• Revenue (2024): $1.67 billion (📈 +16% YoY)

• Net Income: $155.7 million (📉 -41.8% YoY)

• USDC Market Share: $60.9B market cap = 24.6% of all stablecoins (second to Tether’s USDt)

Despite healthy revenue growth, Circle’s profit is under pressure — likely due to rising operational costs and competition.

And speaking of competition...

🤝 Ripple + Coinbase Circling Circle?

Prior to the IPO, rumors swirled about a possible acquisition by Ripple or Coinbase. But Circle quickly shut them down, declaring it “not for sale.”

Smart move? Probably.

Going public gives Circle regulatory legitimacy, access to fresh capital, and more control over its destiny — critical in a space where trust = adoption.

🔍 Why BlackRock’s Stake Matters

BlackRock’s interest is about more than just returns:

• They already manage Circle’s USDC reserves.

• A 10% equity stake + reserve management = strategic grip on the most compliant stablecoin in the U.S.

• This positions BlackRock to shape the future of tokenized money — something Larry Fink (BlackRock CEO) is very publicly bullish on.

Circle isn’t just a stablecoin issuer — it’s a backbone of crypto’s integration into TradFi.

💥 Crypto Market Impact

• Stablecoin wars intensify — Tether remains dominant, but Circle’s IPO could help USDC close the gap with increased transparency and confidence.

• Institutional adoption of USDC-backed DeFi protocols could accelerate.

• Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is a growing narrative — and Circle is well positioned to lead that charge with BlackRock in its corner.

🧠 Nebular Take

This is not just another IPO — it’s TradFi placing its bet on the future of stablecoin infrastructure.

Expect the coming months to bring:

• Regulatory clarity for U.S. stablecoins

• Potential boosts to USDC use in RWAs and DeFi

• Institutional money flowing into Circle-adjacent projects

🎰Chapter 4: Bitcoin 2025 In Vegas - The Revolution Goes Political

Las Vegas just hosted the largest Bitcoin event in the world, and it wasn’t just about price charts and whitepapers.

The Bitcoin 2025 Conference felt more like a political summit, tech expo, and cultural renaissance all wrapped into one — and it drew 30,000+ attendees and 500+ speakers.

From Vice President JD Vance to Ross Ulbricht, the conference spanned Wall Street, Washington, and Web3. And it sent a clear message: Bitcoin is no longer on the fringe — it's going mainstream.

🇺🇸 When the U.S. VP Endorses Bitcoin...

Vice President JD Vance made history by becoming the first sitting U.S. VP to endorse Bitcoin publicly.

Key takeaways from his keynote:

• Called for stablecoin-friendly legislation

• Positioned Bitcoin as critical for financial sovereignty

• Framed the movement as “economic freedom vs. centralized control”

This wasn’t a symbolic appearance — it was a strategic declaration. The U.S. is no longer debating if Bitcoin matters. It’s now about how it will be regulated and integrated.

🌐 International & Institutional Momentum

• Pakistan announced plans to build a national Bitcoin reserve, a major move for global BTC adoption.

• Block Inc. (Square) unveiled a pilot for real-time BTC payments, with a 2026 rollout pending regulatory green light.

• Tether reissued USDT on Bitcoin via Taproot Assets — reigniting the conversation on Bitcoin-based stablecoins.

⚡️ L2, BTCfi, and the Next-Gen Bitcoin Stack

The tech ecosystem had its moment too:

• BitVM2 bridges introduced for decentralized Bitcoin finance (BTCfi)

• Lightning Network showcased real-time, scalable BTC transactions

• Panels covered:

  • Tokenization

  • Bitcoin ETFs

  • BTC capital markets

  • Mining economics

  • Regulation and cross-border compliance

🧠 Nebular Take

The Bitcoin 2025 Conference wasn’t just a crypto event — it was a turning point.

It marked the moment Bitcoin fully entered the arenas of policy, payments, and power.
What happens in Vegas this time… won’t stay in Vegas.

💡Risk-Adjusted Mindset Tips

1. Have a Thesis, Not Just a Token
Invest in narratives: real-world assets, ETH restaking, BTCfi, and tokenized treasuries. Trends > ticker symbols.

2. Take Partial Profits on Breakouts
Don’t try to sell the top. Sell on strength, reload on weakness. Compound discipline — not just capital.

3. If You Can’t Sleep, You’re Overexposed
Crypto will test your psychology. Size positions so you can survive drawdowns without panic. Longevity = edge.

🤡Memes of the week:

✅ Wrap-Up

This week proved that crypto is no longer operating in a silo.

From political endorsements to macroeconomic pressures to infrastructure rollouts, we’re witnessing the fusion of finance, policy, and digital sovereignty.

Stay ahead, stay sharp — and don’t wait for CNBC to tell you it's altcoin season. You’ll already be too late.

Catch you next week,

– Daniel
Founder, Nebular

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.